Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.380409 2.525099 2.682770 2.869111 3.085756 3.332922 3.641238
2025-04-20 2.222563 2.415091 2.636811 2.916622 3.269314 3.713432 4.342691
2025-04-27 2.144597 2.371646 2.644186 3.006570 3.496048 4.172254 5.269902
2025-05-04 2.050657 2.294077 2.594505 3.008860 3.598013 4.474853 6.085560
2025-05-11 1.975745 2.230940 2.553151 3.011532 3.693608 4.783037 7.067286
2025-05-18 1.883582 2.138227 2.464004 2.936037 3.658286 4.865837 7.650796
2025-05-25 1.825712 2.085290 2.422496 2.921831 3.712282 5.113503 8.815211
2025-06-01 1.772530 2.034873 2.380059 2.900775 3.750070 5.339358 10.184513
2025-06-08 1.723142 1.986578 2.336943 2.873897 3.772885 5.540931 11.810983
2025-06-15 1.696802 1.967374 2.332494 2.904385 3.898053 6.003824 15.869293
2025-06-22 1.632324 1.893801 2.247215 2.802123 3.770375 5.840544 15.921410
2025-06-29 1.598706 1.860972 2.218497 2.787247 3.802716 6.083728 20.309956
2025-07-06 1.558167 1.818460 2.175665 2.749785 3.793921 6.238258 26.167506
2025-07-13 1.542026 1.808869 2.179978 2.789053 3.940203 6.893650 86.881386
2025-07-20 1.538026 1.815707 2.208402 2.870445 4.187781 8.060677 NaN
2025-07-27 1.514029 1.793227 2.191497 2.872511 4.266270 8.716275 NaN
2025-08-03 1.491703 1.772221 2.175660 2.874929 4.346185 9.474996 NaN
2025-08-10 1.453834 1.727779 2.122097 2.806520 4.250755 9.334529 NaN
2025-08-17 1.431035 1.704365 2.100079 2.793626 4.287120 9.926242 NaN
2025-08-24 1.408049 1.679980 2.075558 2.774502 4.305773 10.466263 NaN
2025-08-31 1.385048 1.654929 2.049055 2.750068 4.308023 10.935845 NaN
2025-09-07 1.374861 1.648128 2.050732 2.777782 4.448662 12.656482 NaN
2025-09-14 1.338800 1.602654 1.989919 2.684703 4.258309 11.501185 NaN